(Kitco Commentary) - Bitcoin sat flat for hours while tech stocks rallied, then squeezed $1,000 in 15 minutes right after the Nasdaq printed a big green candle. The question now is whether the pump can hold.
For the last three years, I've watched the same pattern play out over and over: Bitcoin follows the Nasdaq 100, not the other way around. Today it showed up again, almost to the minute.
Bitcoin started the day weak. It flushed to about $72,700 on Tuesday after the hot CPI report, its lowest level since August, and it has closed five weeks in a row in the red. This morning the Nasdaq opened strong on CoreWeave's earnings, with AI and chip stocks leading the way, and Bitcoin just sat there, flat, while tech rallied close to 2%.
The minute-by-minute
At 10:25 a.m. Eastern (7:25 a.m. Pacific), the Nasdaq printed a big green candle on the 5-minute chart. That's when Bitcoin finally moved.
By 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Bitcoin's pump had turned into a squeeze, and it jumped about $1,000 in 15 minutes, breaking back above $74,000. As the Nasdaq kept following through, buyers came in and played catch-up on Bitcoin.
Nasdaq 100 5-minute chart showing the big green candle at 10:25 a.m. Eastern
Bitcoin 5-minute chart showing the squeeze starting right after the Nasdaq's move
Put the two charts side by side and the order is clear. The Nasdaq moved first. Bitcoin followed.
Will the pump hold?
That's the real question now. After stalling for a while, Bitcoin just pushed to about $74,600, almost $74,700, while I was typing this. That puts it right inside the next resistance zone between $74,500 and $74,750. It's knocking on the door, but it hasn't broken through.
The Nasdaq 100 has kept going up the whole time. Bitcoin printed a few red candles after the squeeze while tech kept pushing higher, and it's only now catching up. They're moving in the same direction, but Bitcoin is still lagging. The leader runs, and the follower plays catch-up. After that, it's just a matter of pace. If the ticker is relatively weak, it will continue to lag, which is what Bitcoin is doing right now.
The leader may be running out of room. QQQ has now run back up to its last support and resistance zone and filled the gap left from last week's selloff. That's a natural spot for tech to stall, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a red day tomorrow or Friday. If that happens, Bitcoin will likely follow tech lower, and resistance this close overhead makes that more likely.
If Bitcoin breaks through $74,750 with the Nasdaq still green, the catch-up trade has room to run. If it gets rejected here, this was just a squeeze inside a downtrend.
Why Bitcoin waits on tech
Bitcoin trades like a high-risk tech asset. The same big money that moves the Nasdaq moves Bitcoin, so it tends to wait for confirmation from tech before it commits. When the Nasdaq shows strength and holds it, Bitcoin catches up, usually fast. When the Nasdaq rolls over, Bitcoin usually falls harder.
The squeeze also had fuel. Bitcoin futures open interest climbed to its highest level since August on Tuesday, even as price dropped. When that many traders are leaning one way and price turns against them, positions get forced out, and the move speeds up. That's how you get $1,000 in 15 minutes with no news headline behind it.
The macro and the micro
In past articles, I've shown how Bitcoin follows the Nasdaq on the bigger timeframes: the daily and weekly trends, the selloffs, the recoveries. Today is an example of the same thing on the micro level, down to a single 5-minute candle.
That's what makes this pattern so useful. It works on any timeframe, with few exceptions, and when those exceptions come, I call them out in The Profit Circle.
If you're a swing trader, watch the Nasdaq 100's daily and weekly trend. When tech is making higher highs and holding support, Bitcoin longs have the wind at their back. When tech is breaking down, Bitcoin longs are fighting the current.
If you're a day trader, keep a 5-minute Nasdaq chart open next to your Bitcoin chart. When the Nasdaq breaks out and Bitcoin hasn't moved yet, that gap is your heads up. Bitcoin often plays catch-up within minutes. And when the Nasdaq keeps running but Bitcoin stalls, that's your warning that Bitcoin is the weaker of the two.
This is why I compare Bitcoin to the Nasdaq 100 every single day. If you only watch the Bitcoin chart, a move like today's looks random. If you watch QQQ alongside it, you see it coming.
A bounce is not a reversal
Bitcoin is still below $75,000, the support level that broke last week. The macro picture hasn't changed either.
Tuesday's CPI report came in hotter than expected. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast, and core inflation rose 0.3%, also above expectations. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she sees a need for two more quarter-point hikes, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already said a half-point hike should be on the table if core came in that hot.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $1.28 billion the week of November 2 to 6, the biggest weekly outflow since late June, and outflows have continued this week. The 2-week red dot I wrote about on Monday is still in play.
So today's move follows the pattern, but it doesn't change the trend. Bitcoin needs to get through $74,750 and then reclaim $75,000 and hold it before I treat this as anything more than a bounce.
The MSCI decision is the next test
This afternoon, after the stock market closes, MSCI announces whether Strategy, Michael Saylor's company and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, gets removed from its indexes. JPMorgan estimates a removal could trigger about $2.8 billion in forced selling of Strategy shares.
That selling would hit Strategy's stock, not Bitcoin directly. But Bitcoin is trading just below Strategy's average purchase price of $75,456 per coin, so the biggest corporate buyer is underwater on its stack right as its index status is on the line. However it goes, expect volatility tonight.
How I'm positioned
Go long strength, short weakness. The Nasdaq is showing strength today, and Bitcoin is following it, but it's still lagging. That's a short-term move I respect, but I'm not chasing it with a big leveraged long while Bitcoin is sitting right in resistance and the 2-week momentum is red.
I'm still sticking with dollar cost averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin for the long term. That means buying a fixed amount on a regular schedule no matter what the price does.
I'm also still holding my gold and silver longs, along with my physical gold and silver.
I'll be posting what I'm seeing in real time in The Profit Circle, my private Discord community. If you want to learn how I read moves like these, that's what I teach at CassiusCuvee.com, and Swell Point is built to help you spot when momentum actually shifts after the noise. GetSwellPoint.com
General chat in The Profit Circle is free! 🌊
Cassius Cuvée
Cassius Cuvée is a full-time trader, financial commentator, and trading educator based in the Bay Area of California. He has traded full-time since 2020 and follows the markets seven days a week, with a focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency alongside stocks, precious metals, oil, and bonds. His specialty is Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, especially how Bitcoin moves in relation to the NASDAQ and major tech equities. He studies the markets through a macro lens and the cycles that drive them, but he trades the short term. He teaches scalping, day trading, and swing trading, and uses that cross-market view to explain price action and the setups he is watching. Cassius is also a recording artist and a self-described reality rapper, using his words to precisely explain what is happening in his environment, including how the financial markets work. That same precise approach carries into everything he teaches. He publishes market commentary on his Substack, Above the Noise 🌊, every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and posts throughout the day, seven days a week, in his private Discord community, The Profit Circle. He also runs a YouTube channel with more than 64,000 subscribers and is the creator of Swell Point, a proprietary indicator. His website, cassiuscuvee.com, produces educational content built to help everyday traders understand what is really moving the markets.
