Bitcoin traded within a narrow range around the 100 million won level on Nov. 12, failing to establish a clear direction. Despite a broad rebound in AI-related technology stocks on Wall Street overnight, improved risk appetite has yet to spill over into the cryptocurrency market.
As of 8:10 a.m. on Nov. 12, Bitcoin was trading at 100.02 million won, or approximately $74,938, on Bithumb, a cryptocurrency exchange, up 0.40% from 24 hours earlier. In dollar terms, it was trading in the mid-$73,000s on CoinMarketCap. However, the price was still down approximately 7.64% from a week earlier. With major altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP and Solana mostly declining or showing mixed movements, the Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of market sentiment, remained in the “fear” zone at 27 to 29 points. CoinMarketCap’s index had fallen from 42 a week earlier and 58 a month earlier, indicating a deterioration in market sentiment.
U.S. stocks closed higher, lifted by strong third-quarter earnings from CoreWeave, an AI cloud company. CoreWeave shares surged 10% in premarket trading, improving sentiment toward technology stocks, but Bitcoin remained little changed. CoreWeave's results exceeded market expectations, while concerns over its reliance on debt financing also eased, helping drive a rebound in AI-related technology stocks. The so-called “kimchi premium” — the extent to which domestic cryptocurrency prices exceed overseas prices — stood at approximately 1.6%.
Capital outflows and concerns over interest rate hikes are among the key factors weighing on the cryptocurrency market. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows of $95 million on Nov. 11 (local time), marking their fourth consecutive trading day of net outflows. Cumulative net outflows have reached $1.1381 billion. Adding to downward pressure, market pricing indicated an 87.3% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at its Dec. 8-9 meeting.
External economic conditions are also unfavorable. International oil prices have been rising amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes stood at 5.00%. Brent crude futures closed up 1.39% from the previous session at $92.76 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures ended 0.57% higher at $86.53. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose by 0.138 percentage points in a single day. Digital asset analytics firm CoinGlass noted that Bitcoin was trading below the average cost basis of short-term holders, estimated at $75,600, and identified the next major support level near $68,000. The firm also cited continued capital outflows as a factor undermining the potential for a price recovery.
From a longer-term perspective, however, some analysts remain optimistic. Macro investor James Lavish said the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remained intact despite recent interest rate uncertainty. Appearing on Bitcoin media outlet BMTV last month, he reiterated his view that Bitcoin had already reached its bottom. Citing the power law, he maintained his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 to $500,000 by mid-2029 if its price follows a trajectory one standard deviation above the average trend line. He added that it would be surprising if Bitcoin had not reached $200,000 to $300,000 by mid-2029. In the near term, however, he said Bitcoin would remain vulnerable to macroeconomic pressures, including government deficits and inflation data. He also identified the U.S. government's $2 trillion fiscal deficit, an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, rising consumer prices and the possibility of a December rate hike as key macroeconomic variables that could influence Bitcoin's price.
According to Upbit data, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stood at 3,138.53 trillion won, up 0.51% from the previous day, while trading value fell by more than 26% to 845.2 billion won. Market participants see the interest rate outlook and the broader macroeconomic cycle as key factors that will determine Bitcoin's near-term direction.
