Summary

  • Prediction-market platform Kalshi said trading volume tied to the US midterm elections reached about $2.5 billion, nearly double the level seen in the 2024 midterm elections.
  • Kalshi said prediction markets reflected results hours ahead of broadcasters in most races and showed a high probability of a Democratic victory.
  • Kalshi said it plans to expand election-related prediction-market contracts following this midterm election, including overseas elections and a dedicated page for the 2028 US presidential election.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Trading tied to the US midterm elections on prediction-market platform Kalshi has surpassed $2.5 billion.

Kalshi said on November 8 that total trading in prediction-market contracts linked to this midterm election reached about $2.5 billion. That was nearly double the $1.3 billion recorded during the 2024 US midterm elections two years earlier.

Kalshi said prediction markets reflected results hours ahead of broadcasters in most races. Before the midterm elections, markets on Kalshi showed a high probability of a Democratic victory. Still, the scale of the blowout was not fully reflected in the market relative to earlier expectations.

Kalshi plans to use this midterm election as a springboard to expand election-related prediction-market contracts. It will first broaden coverage to overseas elections and prepare a dedicated page for the 2028 US presidential election. The page will focus on markets covering expected candidates, the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, and the eventual winner.

JOON HYOUNG LEE