Summary

  • I maintain a 'Hold' rating on the VanEck Bitcoin ETF, as I believe Bitcoin’s current bearish backdrop is opening some of the most interesting entry windows in years.
  • In my view, inflation above expectations and a likely Fed rate hike are weighing on Bitcoin, which has lost its role as a high-beta proxy for tech.
  • I see Bitcoin as a container of fiat money, so I believe a higher cost of money erodes the value of its scarcity in the short term.
  • In my opinion, falling prices don’t make Bitcoin less scarce: the gap between scarcity-based value and price is deferred, not lost, waiting for the cycle to turn.
  • Given its speculative nature and the risk of further inflation surprises, I think HODL should play no more than a satellite role in a portfolio.

The bearish backdrop Bitcoin is currently moving in creates, in my view, some of the most interesting entry windows in years for VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL). And I think the monetary backdrop the United

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