Weiss Ratings says bitcoin signals point to a market bottom

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Weiss: bitcoin market bottom signals

Several on-chain and derivatives-based bitcoin indicators are signaling that the crypto market's latest downturn has already run its course. The assessment from Weiss Ratings centers on four measures tied to valuation, exchange selling pressure, holder profitability and options-market fear during 2026.

Highlights

Weiss Ratings states that four indicators—Fair Value, exchange inflows, profit rank, and options data—currently signal bitcoin's bear market low is already in place.
The Fair Value and options-based gauges both hit extreme readings on Feb. 5, 2026, while exchange inflows and profit rank reached historical lows in late February and June 25, 2026, respectively.
Weiss Ratings asserts the alignment of these four measures suggests the lowest point in the current bear cycle has likely passed, advising investors to monitor recovery signals.

Four indicators behind the market call

Its Fair Value measure is designed to show whether the average bitcoin holder is underwater or sitting on gains, which the firm says can help identify whether the market is overbought or oversold. Weiss Ratings says that reading showed bitcoin at its most oversold level on Feb. 5, 2026.

The exchange inflow indicator tracks the dollar value of bitcoin moving onto trading venues, a pattern the firm links to potential selling pressure. Weiss Ratings says inflows fell to roughly three standard deviations below normal in late February 2026, a rare drought that it interprets as a sign that sellers had largely already exited the market.

Its profit rank model estimates how many holders are in profit by comparing current prices with inferred acquisition costs based on when coins moved to new addresses. According to the analysis, that measure fell to 4 on June 25, 2026, the lowest reading in the indicator's history, coinciding with a retest of the earlier cycle low.

The options-based gauge combines skew and term structure to measure trader demand for downside protection and short-term fear. Weiss Ratings says the indicator spiked to about three standard deviations on Feb. 5, 2026, suggesting extreme caution in the market at the same time bitcoin touched an important low.

Implications for crypto investors

Weiss Ratings also frames the signal as a timing issue for investors, saying broad headlines often confirm a market turn only after prices have already started recovering. The analysis suggests market participants waiting for a fresh lower low may need stronger evidence against the current data before assuming the downturn is still deepening.

The article does not provide a price target or timeline for a bull market, but it presents the current setup as an opportunity to prepare for a possible next rally. That leaves the practical takeaway focused on monitoring whether the same indicators continue to support a recovery in the broader crypto sector.

Our earlier article on the Philippine Social Security System’s equity portfolio performance explained how the pension fund defended its strategy by separating unrealized “paper” losses from realized gains and dividend income accumulated over decades. It highlighted SSS’s focus on fundamentally strong, income-generating holdings and its use of ongoing monitoring to manage volatility while targeting steady investment income.