Whale holdings rose by 280M tokens in 2 days, but the Coinbase Premium sits at an 8-month low and ETF holders carry $440M in losses | That's TradingNEWS

Key Points

  • XRP fell 5.8% to $1.256 from a $1.34 overnight high, cutting its market cap to roughly $79.6 billion.
  • Wallets holding at least 1 million XRP reached 2,147, a 2026 high, up 28 in ten days and 18 in three days.
  • Spot XRP ETFs took in $18.83 million in October, their smallest monthly total since January.

XRP gave back its post-election bounce on Thursday, November 5. XRP-USD traded at $1.256 in the U.S. session, down 5.8% over 24 hours, after touching $1.34 overnight. The token had reclaimed $1.30 on Wednesday for the first time in days and traded at $1.3129 early Thursday, with a 24-hour gain of roughly 2% to 3%. Once U.S. equities cracked at the 9:30 a.m. ET open, XRP followed bitcoin and ether lower and lost the $1.30 handle within two hours.

The drop takes XRP’s market capitalization to roughly $79.6 billion on a circulating supply of 63.35 billion tokens, down from $83.16 billion at Thursday’s peak. Fully diluted value, which counts the full 100 billion supply including Ripple’s escrowed tokens, sits near $125.6 billion. XRP ranks fifth among crypto assets by market value.

The longer view is painful. XRP traded near $1.49 a month ago and between $2.22 and $2.34 a year ago. At $1.256 it is down 15.7% over 30 days and roughly 45% over 12 months. It sits 65.6% below its record of $3.65 set in July 2025. October was a rough month, and XRP spent much of it sliding from the high $1.40s toward $1.25, where it traded on November 1.

The broader crypto tape set the tone. Bitcoin fell 4.97% to $76,306, ether dropped 6.2% to $2,272, Solana lost 6.8% and Cardano 6.85%. Total crypto liquidations reached $718.5 million over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 82.9%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.3% into correction and the semiconductor index collapsed 11%, dragging every risk asset lower.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. XRP is splitting into two markets that are pulling in opposite directions. Large holders are accumulating at the fastest pace of the year: wallets holding at least 1 million XRP hit a 2026 high of 2,147, and whale holdings rose by 280 million tokens in two days. U.S. institutional demand is moving the other way: spot XRP ETFs took in just $18.83 million in October, the smallest monthly total since January, and have posted zero or negative flows every day in November. ETF holders sit on roughly $440 million in unrealized losses. Ripple’s business keeps expanding, but much of that growth settles in its RLUSD stablecoin rather than XRP itself. Until U.S. demand returns, whale buying provides a floor near $1.24 to $1.25, while the lack of institutional flows caps rallies near $1.34 to $1.35.

XRP’s Thursday started strong. The token traded at $1.30 at 7:54 a.m. ET with a 24-hour gain of 1.99% and spot volume of $1.22 billion. Other trackers showed $1.31 with a 3% to 4% daily gain and a 24-hour range of $1.24 to $1.34. The overnight high at $1.34 marked the best level since late October.

The rally had a clear base. Crypto bounced on Wednesday after Democrats swept both chambers of Congress, the dollar fell to a five-week low and oil crashed 8%, easing fears around geopolitical escalation. Bitcoin pushed above $81,000, ether rose 7.5% and XRP gained 3% to reclaim $1.30. A short squeeze across crypto derivatives liquidated more than $380 million in short positions in under an hour as prices spiked.

On-chain signals added fuel. Roughly 13.24 million XRP left exchanges around 01:00 UTC on Thursday, a sign holders were moving tokens into self-custody rather than preparing to sell. Whale wallets had added hundreds of millions of tokens over the prior 48 hours.

The first crack came before the U.S. open. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching a 57-year low, which reinforced Federal Reserve hike expectations. Bitcoin eased below $78,000 on the data, and XRP slipped back toward $1.30.

Then the equity open hit. Wall Street shed more than $1 trillion in market value within minutes of 9:30 a.m. ET as chip and AI stocks collapsed. Bitcoin lost more than $4,000 in two hours and broke below $77,000. Roughly $370 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in a single hour, most of them long bets. XRP fell through $1.30, then $1.28, and settled in the $1.25 to $1.26 area as the Nasdaq extended its losses toward 5%.

XRP’s drop of 5.8% was in line with bitcoin’s 4.97% and ether’s 6.2%. That tells you XRP traded as part of the broader crypto complex rather than on anything specific to Ripple or the XRP Ledger. There was no XRP-specific negative news on Thursday. The selling came from the same macro and equity forces that hit every risk asset.

The level where XRP stabilized matters. The $1.25 area is where XRP traded on November 1 when Ripple released its monthly escrow tranche, and $1.24 marked the low of the prior 24-hour range. Buyers stepped in there on Thursday, just as they had earlier in the week.

XRP’s Thursday drop only makes sense in the context of the whole market. Bitcoin fell 4.97% to $76,306 as the semiconductor selloff spilled into crypto. Ether fell 6.2% to $2,272. Solana dropped 6.8% to $90.84. BNB lost 3% to $696.51. Cardano fell 6.85%. Hyperliquid dropped 8.9%. XRP’s 5.8% decline sat squarely in the middle of that pack.

The correlation has been tight all week. On Tuesday, XRP slipped with bitcoin as the Nasdaq-100 entered correction ahead of the U.S. midterms. On Wednesday, XRP gained 3% while bitcoin gained 5.4% and ether 7.5%. On Thursday, XRP fell 5.8% while bitcoin fell 4.97%. XRP is trading with roughly 1.0 to 1.2 times bitcoin’s moves, a lower beta than ether but still firmly tied to the broader market.

That correlation runs through U.S. equities. Bitcoin has been trading as a leveraged extension of the Nasdaq, and on Thursday it tracked the tech index almost tick for tick. Large-cap altcoins like XRP follow bitcoin, which means they follow the Nasdaq once removed. When the PHLX Semiconductor Index collapses 11%, as it did Thursday, there is no altcoin-specific story strong enough to offset that pressure.

Liquidation data confirms the shared driver. Total crypto liquidations of $718.5 million over 24 hours were concentrated in bitcoin, at $213.31 million, and ether, at $122.13 million. XRP’s share was smaller, but the forced selling in the two largest assets pulled down the entire market as traders cut exposure across their books.

The implication for the forecast is uncomfortable. XRP’s fundamentals, from whale accumulation to Ripple’s business expansion, matter less on any given day than what happens in U.S. tech stocks. A Nasdaq bounce would likely lift XRP back toward $1.30 regardless of ETF flows. Another leg lower in chips would push XRP toward $1.20 regardless of whale buying.

The correlation also explains why XRP’s on-chain strength has not shown up in price. Whales added 280 million tokens in two days, a meaningful amount, but that buying was overwhelmed by macro-driven selling across crypto. On-chain accumulation builds a floor over weeks. It does not stop a single-day risk-off move.

For traders, the practical read is simple. Watch Nasdaq-100 futures and the bitcoin price for XRP’s next direction. XRP-specific catalysts will matter more once the broader market stabilizes.

The most bullish signal for XRP comes from its largest holders. The number of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP reached 2,147 on Wednesday, a 2026 high. That count rose by 28 wallets in ten days and 18 in the last three, suggesting larger holders are adding during price weakness rather than selling into it. Wallet counts are not the same as investor counts, since one entity can control multiple wallets, but the direction is clear.

Holdings by size confirm the trend. Whale holdings rose from 2.35 billion XRP on November 3 to 2.63 billion on November 5, a net addition of 280 million tokens in two days. At $1.256, that is roughly $352 million in new whale exposure. For a token with $1.22 billion to $2.88 billion in daily spot volume, a $352 million net addition over two days is a large share of available supply.

Large-transfer netflow flipped sharply. The net flow of large XRP transfers swung from negative 226 million tokens on October 29 to positive 273 million on November 4. Negative large-transfer netflow typically reflects big holders moving tokens to exchanges to sell. Positive netflow reflects tokens moving off exchanges into storage. The swing of nearly 500 million tokens in six days marks a sharp shift from distribution to accumulation.

Exchange outflows add to the picture. Approximately 13.24 million XRP left exchanges around 01:00 UTC on Thursday. Tokens leaving exchanges are harder to sell quickly, which tightens the float available for trading.

The timing of the whale buying matters. Large holders added through the late-October slide, through the November 1 escrow release and through the election-night drop. They did not wait for a breakout. That pattern looks like strategic accumulation at what large holders view as a value zone near $1.25 to $1.30.

The forecast implication is a firmer floor. Whales who added 280 million tokens near $1.25 to $1.30 are unlikely to sell at $1.20. Their buying absorbs supply that would otherwise pressure the price. Over weeks, accumulation of this scale tends to support prices even through market-wide selloffs.

The limit is that whales cannot drive a rally on their own. Accumulation builds a base. A breakout above resistance needs new buyers who are willing to pay higher prices, and that demand has been missing from the U.S. institutional side.

Supply on exchanges is tightening. A scarcity index tracking XRP balances on Binance, the largest crypto exchange by volume, hit a four-year high this week. The index measures how much XRP is available on the exchange relative to trading demand. A high reading means less XRP is sitting on the exchange ready to be sold.

That fits the whale data. As large holders move tokens off exchanges into self-custody, the amount available for immediate sale shrinks. The 13.24 million XRP that left exchanges early Thursday is one data point in a broader trend of exchange outflows.

Lower exchange supply has two effects. In a selloff, it limits how much XRP can be dumped quickly, because sellers must first move tokens from cold storage to exchanges, a process that takes time and shows up in on-chain data. That makes cascading declines less likely. In a rally, it means buyers compete for a smaller float, which can amplify upward moves once demand returns.

Thursday’s drop shows the limit of that effect. XRP still fell 5.8% despite tighter exchange supply. The selling came largely from derivatives markets and from holders who already had tokens on exchanges. Tighter spot supply does not prevent price declines driven by leverage unwinds and macro risk-off.

The scarcity reading also highlights a geographic split. The tightening is clearest on Binance, an offshore exchange that serves global retail and institutional traders outside the U.S. That fits a picture in which non-U.S. buyers and large holders are absorbing supply while U.S. demand fades.

Ripple’s own supply adds context. Ripple controls roughly 31.1 billion XRP in escrow, which is not on any exchange and is released on a fixed schedule. The circulating supply of 63.35 billion tokens excludes that escrow. When Ripple releases tokens from escrow and keeps some outside, that adds to potential exchange supply over time. November’s release added a net 300 million tokens outside escrow, a modest increase against the backdrop of whale accumulation.

For the forecast, tightening exchange supply supports the floor near $1.24 to $1.25 and sets up the potential for a sharp move higher once broader market conditions improve. It is a necessary condition for a rally, not a sufficient one.

The other half of the XRP market is weakening. A gauge of U.S. buying interest, the Coinbase Premium, sits at an eight-month low. The premium measures the price difference between XRP on Coinbase, which serves mostly U.S. customers, and XRP on offshore exchanges. When U.S. buyers are aggressive, XRP trades at a premium on Coinbase. When they pull back, the premium shrinks or turns negative.

An eight-month low means U.S. investors are less willing to pay up for XRP than at any point since March. That contrasts sharply with the whale accumulation and offshore scarcity signals. Global large holders are buying. U.S. retail and institutional buyers are not.

The ETF data shows the same pattern. Spot XRP ETFs took in just $18.83 million in net inflows in October, the smallest monthly total since January. September had seen $121.40 million in inflows. October’s total was 84% lower. November has started worse: the funds posted a $529,510 outflow on November 2 and zero net flows on November 3. Preliminary figures for November 4 also showed no creations or redemptions.

Why are U.S. buyers sitting out? Several factors converge. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed hike expectations make risk assets less attractive. The Nasdaq’s correction has hit the same growth-oriented investors who drove XRP ETF inflows earlier in the year. And the regulatory outlook darkened after Tuesday’s election, with the CLARITY Act now effectively dead in its current form.

The gap between global whales and U.S. institutions is the key tension in XRP’s market structure. Historically, sustained XRP rallies have needed U.S. demand to confirm them. The 2024 and 2025 surges came with strong Coinbase premiums and, later, ETF anticipation. Without that confirmation, rallies tend to fade at resistance.

For the forecast, U.S. demand is the missing piece. A turn in the Coinbase Premium back to positive and a return to daily ETF inflows of $5 million or more would signal that U.S. buyers are returning. Until then, XRP will struggle to hold rallies above $1.30 to $1.35, even with whales accumulating underneath.

The spot XRP ETF complex tells a story of early enthusiasm and current fatigue. U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 and have attracted cumulative net inflows of roughly $1.81 billion since. Combined net assets across the funds stood at about $1.46 billion as of November 3, below the total capital investors have committed. Reconstructed cost bases suggest roughly $440 million in unrealized investor losses.

That gap is the problem. ETF investors put $1.81 billion into XRP at prices well above current levels, and they now hold positions worth $1.46 billion. Those underwater holders represent overhead supply. Every rally toward their entry points brings potential sellers looking to cut losses or break even.

The ETFs hold roughly 1,196.39 million XRP in reported custody, virtually unchanged from 1,196.41 million the day before. Total ETF assets under management were reported at $1.54 billion. Week 45 net flow stood at negative 0.19 million XRP, worth roughly negative $250,000. The flows have been close to zero in both directions.

Trading volume picked up even as flows stalled. XRP ETF trading volume reached $21.48 million on Wednesday, up 66% from $12.93 million the day before. Bitwise led with $14.44 million, followed by Franklin Templeton at $5.08 million, Canary Capital at $1.42 million, Grayscale at $447,460, REX Osprey at $49,480 and 21Shares at $41,500. Most of that volume was investor-to-investor trading on the secondary market, which does not create or redeem fund shares and does not affect flow totals.

Higher volume without flows means existing holders are trading among themselves rather than new money entering. That is a sign of active interest but not of fresh demand.

Leveraged products add a speculative layer. ProShares’ 2x leveraged XRP ETF (XRPI) and the REX Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) give traders amplified exposure. Leveraged funds rebalance daily and tend to suffer in volatile, range-bound markets like the one XRP has been in for weeks, which erodes returns for buy-and-hold investors.

The flow pattern has repeated before. After launch, XRP ETF inflows exceeded $200 million in the first week before collapsing to roughly $2 million a week by week four. March 2026 marked the first month of net outflows in XRP ETF history, with $31 million leaving. September’s $121.40 million inflow was a recovery that October could not sustain.

For the forecast, the ETF channel is not providing support. A sustained rally needs consecutive inflow days in the $10 million to $30 million range. Zero and negative flows in November leave the price dependent on whales and the broader crypto market.

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Ripple’s monthly escrow release added a known, modest amount of supply this month. On November 1, Ripple executed its scheduled unlock of 1 billion XRP in two transactions of 500 million tokens each, worth roughly $1.25 billion at the time. The XRP Ledger record shows two escrow-finish transactions at 00:00:02 UTC on November 1, both landing in Ripple-controlled wallets rather than on an exchange.

Ripple re-locked 700 million of those tokens the same evening, in new escrow contracts with terms running until 2029. That leaves roughly 300 million XRP outside escrow for the month, which Ripple typically uses for operations, liquidity provision and ecosystem activities. At $1.256, those 300 million tokens are worth about $377 million.

The escrow system dates to December 2017, when Ripple placed 55 billion XRP into contracts designed to release 1 billion tokens on the first day of each month. Ripple has historically re-locked 700 million to 800 million tokens each month. As of November 2, 31.1 billion XRP sat in 99 escrow objects across eight Ripple wallets.

The market has learned to ignore the releases. XRP traded near $1.25 on November 1, up just 0.08% on the day, as the unlock passed without disruption. The schedule is public and predictable, and the re-lock pattern is well established. November’s release followed the same script.

The net supply effect is modest. A 300 million token monthly net release adds roughly 0.5% to circulating supply per month. That is a slow drip rather than a flood. Against the 280 million tokens whales added in just two days this week, the escrow release is easily absorbed.

Still, the escrow overhang matters for long-term valuation. Fully diluted value, at roughly $125.6 billion, is 58% higher than circulating market cap. Investors pricing XRP on fully diluted value see a more expensive asset than those pricing on circulating supply. The 31.1 billion tokens in escrow represent future supply that will eventually reach the market, even if Ripple controls the pace.

The XRP Ledger also had a technical milestone on the calendar. The fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment, which began its two-week activation window on October 21 after a voting reset, had its earliest activation date at 2:46 p.m. UTC on November 4, provided validator support stayed above 80%. Technical maintenance on the ledger is routine and has little price effect.

For the forecast, escrow is a non-factor in November. The release is done, the re-lock is confirmed and the net supply is small.

Ripple the company is having a strong year. On October 30, Ripple received approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to launch a national trust bank. Its approved activities include managing the segregated reserves behind RLUSD, acting as collateral trustee and providing fiduciary digital asset custody. RLUSD, Ripple’s U.S. dollar stablecoin, remains issued by Standard Custody & Trust Company, Ripple’s New York-regulated trust company.

Distribution is expanding. Coinbase expanded RLUSD availability in October, enabling retail and institutional customers to access the stablecoin across the XRP Ledger, Base and Ethereum. Ripple has deepened ties with BNY and other institutions. On Thursday, Ripple and C2FO announced an initiative to use the XRP Ledger and RLUSD for instant working-capital settlement.

Leadership is not changing course after the election. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company’s U.S. policy goals remain unchanged after the midterm elections.

So why is XRP falling while Ripple grows? Because much of Ripple’s institutional business no longer requires XRP. Its newer offerings, including RLUSD and brokerage services, let institutional customers transact and settle without holding XRP itself. When payments run over the XRP Ledger but are denominated in RLUSD, underlying demand for XRP as a settlement asset may stay limited. The C2FO initiative, for example, uses RLUSD for settlement. That is good for Ripple’s revenue and good for the XRP Ledger’s activity, but it does not directly create demand for the XRP token.

The disconnect is the central debate among XRP investors. Bulls argue that more activity on the XRP Ledger requires XRP for transaction fees and account reserves, and that RLUSD liquidity pools often pair with XRP. Bears argue that the enterprise story increasingly runs on stablecoins, and that XRP’s role as a bridge currency has been displaced.

Ripple’s corporate value is also separate from XRP’s market value. Ripple’s equity investors benefit from the trust bank, RLUSD fees and custody revenue. XRP holders benefit only to the extent those activities drive demand for the token. Some critics argue that Ripple prioritizes its shareholders before XRP holders.

For the forecast, Ripple’s business wins are long-term supportive but short-term neutral. They raise the odds that the XRP Ledger becomes core financial infrastructure. They do not change this week’s supply-demand balance for the token.

Tuesday’s election changed XRP’s regulatory outlook. The CLARITY Act, the crypto industry’s top legislative priority, passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and then failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 in September. With Democrats taking control of both chambers in January, the bill in its current form is effectively dead. Any revival needs 60 Senate votes.

The CLARITY Act would have given the Commodity Futures Trading Commission greater authority over crypto trading and reduced the Securities and Exchange Commission’s role. For XRP, that framework mattered more than for most assets. XRP spent years in litigation with the SEC over whether it was a security, a case that shaped the token’s U.S. market access. A clear commodities framework would have locked in regulatory certainty.

House Democrats are now discussing their own market-structure bill for the next Congress. The plan would build on amendments Representative Maxine Waters offered during the House review of CLARITY, which were rejected, and fold in provisions Senate Democrats negotiated with Republicans before September’s vote. The framework would give the SEC a bigger role and the CFTC a smaller one. No text has been released. Ethics rules restricting President Trump and other officials from crypto business activities are expected to be part of the package.

A bigger SEC role raises questions for XRP. The SEC’s past enforcement action created years of uncertainty, delistings and lost institutional access. A return to SEC-led oversight, even without a new enforcement case, revives the risk of stricter disclosure rules, registration requirements or limits on how exchanges and funds can handle XRP.

The crypto industry spent an estimated $170.5 million on the 2026 midterms through political action committees. That spending did not prevent the Democratic sweep.

The timeline is long. Any new market-structure bill would not pass before 2027 and would still need the president’s signature. In the meantime, XRP trades without the clear federal framework that bulls had expected by year-end.

Ripple’s stance is steady. Garlinghouse said the company’s policy goals remain unchanged. Ripple’s OCC trust bank approval came before the election and gives the company a regulated U.S. footprint regardless of what Congress does.

For the forecast, the regulatory shift is a drag on U.S. institutional demand. It helps explain why the Coinbase Premium sits at an eight-month low and why ETF flows have stalled. Global whales, less exposed to U.S. policy, keep buying.

XRP’s next move depends heavily on U.S. macro data. October payrolls arrive Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus at 65,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.2%. September showed just 29,000 jobs added.

The early signals point to a firmer number. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 on Thursday, matching a 57-year low. ADP counted 86,000 private jobs in October, above expectations. Third-quarter productivity rose at a 3.6% annualized pace. Layoff announcements fell 71% from a year earlier.

The Fed is leaning hawkish. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said policy needs to move to a restrictive stance. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin backed gradual tightening. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point hikes. Markets price a 74.5% chance of a December hike. The Fed holds at 3.75% to 4.00%.

Higher rates hurt XRP. They raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and tighten liquidity across risk markets. The two-year Treasury yields 4.50% and the 10-year 4.831%. Cash and short-term bonds pay a meaningful return with no price risk.

The Nasdaq is the main transmission channel. The tech index fell 4.3% to 24,630.58 on Thursday, entering correction more than 10% below its October 6 record. Bitcoin tracked the Nasdaq closely, and XRP tracked bitcoin. A stabilization in tech would help XRP. Another leg lower would hurt it.

The dollar and oil offer mixed signals. The dollar index sits at 101.51, near its weakest level since late September, which normally supports crypto. Oil rebounded to $97 Brent after a 19.6% three-day crash, easing inflation fears that had pushed the Fed toward hikes.

Next week brings October CPI on Tuesday, November 10, expected at 3.7% year over year. A hot print would firm hike bets and pressure XRP. A soft print would help.

For the forecast, XRP’s direction over the next week depends more on Friday’s payrolls and the Nasdaq than on anything specific to Ripple. A soft jobs report and an equity bounce could lift XRP back to $1.30 to $1.35 quickly. A hot report and further tech selling could push it toward $1.20.

XRP’s chart shows a market stuck in a tight range. Support starts at $1.25, the level where XRP traded on November 1 during the escrow release and where buyers stepped in again Thursday. Below that, $1.24 marks the low of Wednesday’s 24-hour range. A daily close below $1.24 would break the range and open a path toward $1.20, the next round-number support, and then $1.15.

Resistance starts at $1.30, the level XRP reclaimed Wednesday and lost Thursday. Above that, $1.34 marks Thursday’s overnight high and $1.35 is the level where XRP’s recent rally stalled. Technical traders have watched a triangle pattern with resistance in that area. A daily close above $1.35 would break the pattern and target $1.40, then $1.49, the level XRP traded at a month ago.

The broader trend is bearish. XRP has fallen from $1.49 a month ago and from $2.22 to $2.34 a year ago. It sits 65.6% below its $3.65 record. Every rally since late September has failed below the prior high, forming a series of lower highs. Thursday’s failure at $1.34 added another one.

The range is narrow. From $1.24 support to $1.35 resistance is 11 cents, or 8.8% of the current price. XRP has spent roughly two weeks inside that band, with whales buying at the bottom and sellers capping the top.

Volume has been modest. Spot volume of $1.22 billion to $2.88 billion a day represents 1.5% to 3.6% of market cap, a low turnover rate for a large-cap crypto asset. Low volume in a range often precedes a sharp move once a catalyst arrives.

The on-chain floor aligns with the technical floor. Whale accumulation near $1.25 to $1.30 and the escrow-release level at $1.25 both reinforce support in the same zone. That convergence makes $1.24 to $1.25 the most important level on the chart.

For traders, the setup is clear. A hold above $1.24 keeps the range intact and favors a retest of $1.30. A break below $1.24 on volume would signal that whale buying has been overwhelmed and that $1.20 is next.

XRP’s Thursday session was bearish, but the forecast for the next two weeks is neutral within a range. XRP-USD at $1.256 is down 5.8% over 24 hours after failing at $1.34 overnight. Market cap sits near $79.6 billion. XRP trades 15.7% below its level a month ago, roughly 45% below a year ago and 65.6% below its $3.65 record.

The selloff came from outside XRP. Bitcoin fell 4.97%, ether 6.2%, and the Nasdaq 4.3% into correction as the semiconductor index collapsed 11%. Crypto liquidations reached $718.5 million, with longs making up 82.9%. XRP traded as part of the complex.

Under the surface, the market is split. Whales are accumulating: millionaire wallets hit a 2026 high of 2,147, whale holdings rose 280 million tokens in two days, and large-transfer netflow swung from negative 226 million to positive 273 million in a week. Exchange supply on Binance hit a four-year scarcity high. U.S. demand is fading: the Coinbase Premium sits at an eight-month low, spot XRP ETFs took in just $18.83 million in October and have posted zero or negative flows every day in November, and ETF holders sit on $440 million in unrealized losses.

Ripple’s business keeps expanding, with an OCC trust bank approval, RLUSD on Coinbase and a new C2FO settlement initiative. But much of that growth runs on RLUSD rather than XRP. The CLARITY Act is dead in its current form, and a Democratic rewrite with a bigger SEC role adds regulatory uncertainty. The November escrow release added a modest 300 million tokens net.

Base case for the next 10 trading days: range trade between $1.24 and $1.35, with Friday’s payrolls, Tuesday’s CPI and the Nasdaq setting direction. A daily close above $1.35 targets $1.40, then $1.49. A daily close below $1.24 targets $1.20, then $1.15. Whales are building the floor, and until U.S. institutions return, they are doing it alone.

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