Morgan Stanley Cuts Coinbase to Underweight, Slashes 2027 Revenue Forecast 28%

Summary

• Morgan Stanley said it downgraded Coinbase to underweight and cut its price target by more than half, to $120 from $258.
• A Morgan Stanley analyst lowered Coinbase's 2027 revenue forecast by 28% to $6.4 billion and cut the 2028 forecast by 18% to $6.6 billion.
• The firm said lower crypto trading volumes, weaker Bitcoin prices, delays in US market structure legislation, and the Binance hack are weighing on Coinbase's performance and investor confidence.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase Global Inc. and said its confidence in the company’s ability to recover earnings has weakened.

Bloomberg reported on November 6 that Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys cut Coinbase to underweight from equal-weight and more than halved his price target to $120 from $258.

Cyprys lowered his 2027 revenue forecast for Coinbase by 28% from his prior estimate to $6.4 billion. He also reduced his 2028 forecast by 18% to $6.6 billion. Bloomberg-compiled consensus estimates are $6.51 billion and $7.81 billion, respectively.

Coinbase shares have fallen more than 39% this year. The company is projected to post an adjusted net loss of $0.48 a share this year, a stark shift from the market’s expectation more than a year ago for net profit of over $7 a share.

Lower digital-asset trading volumes, weaker Bitcoin prices and delays in discussions over US crypto market structure legislation are weighing on results. The recent Binance hack was also cited as a factor that could erode investor confidence in centralized exchanges more broadly.

Cyprys wrote that the Binance breach could slow retail participation, trading activity and the pace of institutional entry if confidence in centralized crypto platforms deteriorates. He also cited the possibility of tighter regulatory scrutiny.

Gus Galá, an analyst at Monness Crespi Hardt, also maintains a sell rating on Coinbase. He said weak trading activity and regulatory uncertainty could persist, making a meaningful earnings recovery difficult through 2027.

Minseung Kang